The fall in September was mainly driven by the first week of the month, the traditional back-to-school week, which saw the steepest drop (-12.94%). There were some positive signs when looking at the month-on-month comparison (+2.1%), which was up for the first time since the high streets reopened in April – however, pre-pandemic patterns indicated this would typically be closer to +6%.

Breaking the results down further, September’s subdued sales suggest consumers are browsing and not buying, which could result from a variety of factors including supply chain shortages and consumer caution in the face of rising inflation and gas prices, or Christmas browsing starting earlier. This is evident when looking at the conversation rate, which was down from 3.9% in September 2020 to 2.8% for the same month this year.

At category level, clothing remained positive, with sales up 11.1% on the same month last year. Based on year-to-date patterns, this is expected to continue into the new year.

“Online sales were more subdued in September, and basket value decreased month on month for the first time this year. This has been reflected across the market alongside a dip in consumer confidence as back to school and a push for a ‘return to normal’ coincides with concerns on energy bills, costs, and tax hikes,” says Lucy Gibbs, managing consultant, retail lead for analytics and AI at Capgemini.

She adds: “Supply chains are also under significant strain, presenting challenges for retailers as we move into the peak trading period. How retailers will navigate the build-up to Black Friday and Christmas events will be crucial to manage availability of stock throughout the period and maintain customer service levels.”

Andy Mulcahy, strategy and insight director, IMRG adds: “Many retailers are reporting that Christmas searches on their sites started very early this year. One possibility for the relatively low performance in online sales in September may be related to that point. If shoppers were browsing for ideas in September, the purchasing may start to fall in October. The conversion on sites in September was down around 25% on the same time last year, but that has been a trend across many months. If the purchasing accelerates early, it might spur some to launch their Black Friday campaigns even earlier than they did in 2020, which could lead to an extended event this year.”

The UK’s British Retail Consortium (BRC) recently warned of a hike in product prices in the run-up to Christmas, linked to increasing supply chain pressures from shipping delays to the HGV driver shortage and costs, as well as Brexit-related red tape.

By Just Style